Monday, September 13, 2010

Environics: Conservatives by 4

A second poll today! Environics shows the Conservatives leading by 4 nationally, which is not too surprising. But the regional breakdown is pretty wild: apparently, the Tories lead Ontario by 10% (when Ipsos, Nanos and EKOS just told us the Grits lead there by 8%, 7% and 6.6% respectively), and the Liberals are at 33% in Québec (just 5% behind the Bloc), even though most other pollsters put them in the low 20s. The Liberal 30% in BC, NDP 29% in Atlantic Canada and NDP 32% in the Prairies are also pretty high, but aren't that surprising given the small samples in those areas.

The Tories' whopping 10% lead in Ontario in this poll negates most of the Liberal gains from the last projection, while the Grits' 33% in Québec merely brings them back into the game without yet yielding many seats:

CON - 129
LIB - 92
BQ - 52
NDP - 35

The average Conservative national lead is up modestly (but still down on the day) to 2.6%.

It will be very interesting to see what this week's EKOS says about Ontario. Was it just a fluke that Nanos, EKOS and Ipsos concurred, or is this Environics result not just 1-in-20 bad, but actually 1-in-100 bad? Perhaps Angus Reid would like to weigh in as well - we know someone annoyingly missed an excellent opportunity to do so last week (yes, I'm looking at you, Harris-Decima)...

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