Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Angus Reid: Tories Lead by 8

The latest Angus Reid poll is out, and it is a sweet one for the Conservatives: 50% on MB/SK, a 15% lead over the NDP in BC, and a small edge (3%) in Ontario. This is also a good poll for the NDP after much negative news these past few weeks: 18% nationally, with very strong results in Ontario (19%) and Québec (17%), and a bounce in Alberta (14%; incidentally, the Tories did relatively poorly in the Wild Rose province with just 52%). The Liberals, on the other hand, only have one bright spot in this poll: a 17% lead in Atlantic Canada.

The new projection shows small changes in the seat count:

CON - 133
LIB - 91
BQ - 50
NDP - 34

The big movement, however, is in the popular vote average, where the Tory lead jumps to 5.2%. The reasons why the seat count changed little are that Québec remained stable, and the Ontario numbers didn't move much because this poll significantly reduced the weight on the early September Environics poll that gave the Tories a 10% lead there.

Let's see if EKOS' release tomorrow confirms the Conservative upswing suggested by Angus Reid and Ipsos...

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