Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Léger: Tories by 9 Nationally (3 weeks ago); Bloc by 13 in QC (last week)

Léger Marketing has posted not one, but two new polls this week. The older one is a national survey from early August, and it shows a much larger Conservative lead (9 points) than contemporaneous polls (3-6 points). This can almost entirely be explained by the 7-point Tory lead in Ontario (compared to 1-point in other polls at that time; the latest EKOS shows a 3-point Liberal lead there) and by a whopping 48% for the Conservatives in BC (against 19% only for both the Grits and the Dippers).

The newer poll is a provincial one, and shows run of the mill numbers for Québec. Only the Tory number is slightly higher than usual - Québec pollsters often produce such results, in anticipation of the common federalist ballot box bonus.

These polls do not cost the Liberals any seats in the projections, though it pushes them farther away from bigger gains in Ontario. The Tories do manage an extra seat at the expense of the NDP, which is now at its lowest level since mid-March.

CON - 131
LIB - 90
BQ - 51
NDP - 36

The average Conservative national lead is 5.5%, but expect this number to go back down as this poll may well be an outlier.

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