Thursday, May 27, 2010

Harris-Decima: Conservatives Lead by 9

In its most recent poll, Harris-Decima has confirmed the increase in the Tory-Grit gap observed by EKOS. However, Harris-Decima numbers suggest that this is due to a Conservative rise, rather than a Liberal drop as EKOS showed.

This poll is all doom and gloom for the Liberals, showing its electoral prospects deteriorating in all parts of the country, except for Québec, where it only trails the Bloc by 9. The Tories will be pleased with their 7-point lead in Atlantic Canada, 5-point lead in Ontario and 12-point lead over the NDP in BC.

Adding this poll to the mix finally creates some significant movement:

CON - 137
LIB - 79
BQ - 53
NDP - 39

This is the first time since March, when I suggested that things would remain flat until May, that the Tories have been outside a very narrow 130-to-134-seat range. The pattern of having 2-3 months between each significant poll movement continues! This projection is the best for the Tories since the first one of 2010, and the worst for the Liberals since the last one of 2009.

The average Tory national lead is now a very comfortable 7.9%.

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