Thursday, March 18, 2010

EKOS: Tories Lead by 4.2

This week's EKOS poll shows some small favourable movement toward the Tories: there is now a Liberal-Conservative tie in Atlantic Canada and, more significantly, Ontario. It's not all good news for the Tories though: they now only lead MB/SK by 13.6 over the Liberals (compared to 34.1 in the last election), and they're only at 32% in BC, down 4.4% from last week's EKOS.

This is a bad poll for the Liberals: lost their edge in Atlantic Canada and Ontario, and an average result in Québec dashes some of the enthusiasm they may have felt after last week's good EKOS and this week's excellent Nanos results there.

Little change in the aggregate projection:

CON - 133
LIB - 91
BQ - 49
NDP - 35

After their February lows in the low 120s, the Tories have recovered 10 or so seats, and the situation has been stable for all parties for the past 2 weeks. This is almost the mirror image of what happened in the Fall: the Tories were flirting with a majority in mid-October, before losing 10 or so seats and settling down in the mid-140s for November and December. In fact, since early last summer, the pattern has been:

- 2 flat months (July, August 2009)
- 1.5 months of big movement (September, early October)
- 2-3 weeks of a small rebound (late October)
- 2 flat months (November, December)
- 1.5 months of big movement (January, early February 2010)
- 2-3 weeks of a small rebound (mid-late February)
- 2 flat weeks, and counting (March up to now)

Does this mean we can doze off until May?

Tories lead the national weighted average by just over 3%.

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