Wednesday, May 5, 2010

UK Election Tomorrow

Ten polling firms have published polls following the third and final debate last week. Here are the averages of the most recent poll by each firm, and changes from last week:

CON - 34.8% (+1%)
LD - 28.2% (-1%)
LAB - 26.7% (+0.7%)

Three of these firms are newcomers to UK political polling. Excluding them gives:

CON - 35.6% (+1.4%)
LAB - 27.9% (+1.1%)
LD - 27.4% (-1.1%)

If we instead exclude the three firms that did not conduct a poll in the past 3 days (so their most recent poll was either last weekend or conducted over the entire week), we get:

CON - 35.9% (+1.9%)
LAB - 27.4% (+1.1%)
LD - 27.3% (-1.3%)

Only including the six "old" firms that conducted a poll in the past few days gives:

CON - 35.8% (+1.7%)
LAB - 28% (+1.2%)
LD - 27% (-1.3%)

So, what's clear is that the Lib Dems have lost momentum in the past week, while the Tories and Labour have gained some. Also, the Tories are obviously in front, while Labour and the Lib Dems are very close.

I expect the Tories winning by about 8 points, while Labour and the Lib Dems should be roughly tied for second. I expect the final seat count to be roughly:

CON - 310 (including Speaker and the delayed election in Thirsk and Malton)
LAB - 214
LD - 94
Other - 32

Around the web, here are some projections, including both the Speaker and T&M in the Conservative column (Con-Lab-LD-Oth; midpoint if only range is specified):

UK Websites
YouGov: 305-235-80-30
ComRes: 299-233-87-31
LSE: 251-286-81-32
The Times (based on Ladbrokes): 322-213-82-33
Electoral Calculus: 297-235-86-32
UK Polling Report: 305-225-85

International Websites
FiveThirtyEight: 312-204-103-31
Election Prediction Project: 284-245-90-31 (updated)

Canadian Websites
Riding By Riding: 300-230-90-31 (sums to 651)
TrendLines: 299-227-93-31
BC Iconoclast: 337-151-132-30 (updated)

Other Websites (via UK Polling Report)
TNS: 292-204-114
Angus Reid: 330-175-112.5

So the ranges are:
CON - 251 (LSE) to 337 (BC Iconoclast)
LAB - 151 (BC Iconoclast) to 286 (LSE)
LD - 80 (YouGov) to 132 (BC Iconoclast)

Excluding LSE and BC Iconoclast:
CON - 279+ (Election Prediction) to 330 (Angus Reid)
LAB - 175 (Angus Reid) to 242+ (Election Prediction)
LD - 80 (YouGov) to 114 (TNS)

Let's see how these 14 projections, some based on formal models and others (like mine) based on hunches, perform!

2 comments:

Bernard von Schulmann said...

Opps, I made a typo on my posting as to the numbers. LD and Cons are one too high each.

I still think people are under estimating the swing from Labour to non voting. Using that explains 1997 much better than all the traditional models.

Election Watcher said...

I agree that the uniform national swing model will overstate Labour's seat number. However, I don't think "swings" to staying home will make Labour fall as low as 151. I guess we'll find out soon!