Thursday, May 20, 2010

EKOS: Tories Lead by 9.3

Due to its large sample sizes, EKOS usually gives us numbers that closely track moving averages. This week's poll doesn't, and shows a large national Conservative lead, not so much due to a rise in Tory support as a large drop in Grit (and NDP) numbers: time for the Liberals to worry?

The most notable result is in Ontario, where the Tories lead by 7.1%, which is 6% more than last week and also more than during the 2008 election. The Tories also have a nearly 5% lead in the Atlantic. With respect to last week's EKOS poll, Conservative fortunes have also risen in AB and BC; they have dropped slightly in MB/SK. The dark spot for the Tories is a sub-15% performance in Québec. All in all, this poll would place the Tories near where they are now in the seat count, despite a national lead 2% lower than in 2008.

Meanwhile, Liberal and NDP numbers dropped in every region relative to last week (except the Liberals in AB). Other than the Grits potentially becoming competitive in Winnipeg due to the Tory and NDP drops in MB/SK, there is nothing positive for these two parties in this poll.

Weirdly enough, adding this poll to the mix increases the Liberal seat count:

CON - 133
LIB - 83
BQ - 53
NDP - 39

However, the Liberals are within 1% from losing a seat in each of 5 provinces to the Tories (NL, PE, NB, ON, MB) and also a seat to the Bloc, while they are more than 2% away from gaining any seat. Thus, 83 probably somewhat overstates their expected seat count, and 133 likely understates the Tory one.

The Conservative average national lead is now 6.6%.

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