Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Nanos: Conservatives Lead by 4

Nanos' latest poll is out, and as usual, it is a pretty good one for the Liberals. While they trail the Tories by 4% nationally, they have politically (though not statistically) significant leads in Ontario and Atlantic Canada and respectable scores in BC (32.2%) and Québec (26.7%). This is also a decent poll for the Tories and the Bloc. It's the NDP and the Greens that get disappointing numbers right across the country. In the NDP's case, it's surprising since they have fared abnormally well in the latest polls by other firms. In the Greens' case, it's also surprising: while they usually get lower numbers with Nanos due to methodological issues (Nanos does not prompt with party name), their 3.8% this time is just dismal.

I will update the aggregate projection once today's EKOS poll is available.

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