Monday, February 1, 2010

Harris-Decima: Tie

Here is the latest Harris-Decima poll. It shows a tie between Grits and Tories over the past 2 weeks. However, we know from some media reports from last week that over Jan. 21-24, Harris-Decima had the Tories 1 point ahead. Thus, they probably had the Liberals ahead over Jan. 28-31. Additionally, the breakdown shows that over the 2 weeks, the Liberals led by 5 points among women, and lagged by 3 among men. So if Harris-Decima showed decimals in their national numbers, the Liberals would probably be slightly ahead over 2 weeks - and hence ahead by about 2 points in the latest week.

The Conservative numbers in this poll were actually par for the course, except in Québec where they scored a dismal 13%. It is that Liberals doing well in the 3 largest provinces that closed the gap: 28% in Québec, 40% in Ontario and 30% in BC. The NDP numbers were on the weak side, but nothing disastrous there; the Bloc did OK as well, with a 10-point lead.

The new aggregate projection is:

CON - 126
LIB - 98
BQ - 48
NDP - 36

The Conservative seat lead shrunk by 6, and now sits at 28. In terms of the effective polling average corresponding to these projections, the Tory lead shrunk by 0.5%, and now sits at 2%. Four pollsters have polled nationally in the second half of January: EKOS and Harris-Decima seem to now have the Grits marginally ahead, while Angus and Ipsos have the Tories with a small lead. It would be interesting to see where The Strategic Counsel and Nanos come down on this...

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