Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Angus Reid: Tories Up by 4

The latest Angus Reid poll shows a Conservative lead roughly stable from 3 weeks ago. The stable trend is consistent with what other pollsters have had lately, although Angus pegs the support levels somewhat more favourably to the Tories. The latter shouldn't be surprising: last summer, when the Tories also had a slight lead over the Liberals, Angus tended to be slightly more favourable to the Conservatives; we're witnessing a return to that pattern.

The latest poll is actually a very good one for the Grits in Atlantic Canada. In Ontario, however, Angus Reid has the Tories with a narrow lead. The Conservatives also polled strongly in Alberta and BC, but the Liberals and NDP got decent results there as well. Adding this poll to the mix gives the following seat count:

CON - 122
LIB - 103
BQ - 47
NDP - 36

The national poll average still has a Tory lead of just over 1 point. Why didn't it go up by more with this poll? The reason is that this poll is almost one full week more recent than the previous latest poll, meaning that it completed the depreciation of a few polls from the first half of January, when the Tories were higher.

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