Friday, February 26, 2010

Environics: Tories Up by 1

Environics has released a new poll (results via ThreeHundredEight.com) showing a big change from its previous one: the Liberals have dropped from 37% to 30%, going from a lead of 4 to a deficit of 1. Of course, the 37% was a big outlier, and the new results align much more closely with the other polls. However, given the EKOS poll from yesterday, there seems to be a slight trend of the Grits settling down a bit, and the Tories regaining a clear, but small lead.

The regional breakdown in this poll is rather standard in the East. Out West though, the Liberals are surprisingly weak in MB/SK (to the profit of the Tories) and BC (to the profit of the Greens, at 21%), and surprisingly strong in Alberta (at the expense of the Tories). This leads to the loss of a few seats in Manitoba and BC in the aggregate projection for the Grits:

CON - 127
LIB - 96
BQ - 47
NDP - 38

Conservatives now lead by 2.4% nationally in my poll average.

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