Thursday, February 4, 2010

EKOS: Liberal Edge Continues

This week's EKOS poll has the Liberals 0.9% ahead of the Tories, which is roughly the same result as last week's poll. However, the regional breakdown bears even more good news for the Grits: their lead over the Tories has widened in Atlantic Canada and Ontario, and the Conservative lead in BC has waned. All this leads to another large seat loss for the Tories in the projection, almost all to the Grits' benefit:

CON - 120
LIB - 103
BQ - 48
NDP - 37

All seats are now within one seat of the September 4 projections - exactly 5 months ago, and just before the Liberals' election bravado started destroying their numbers in the polls. Michael Ignatieff is not out of the woods yet, but can now clearly see the light at the end of the tunnel.

At the same time, Stephen Harper must be worried: this projection is the worst for the Tories since the launch of this website in late July, and indeed EKOS hasn't had the Liberals ahead two weeks in a row since late June/early July. He must hope that the Olympic frenzy erases some of the negative feelings toward him that have blossomed lately.

In terms of vote intentions, my poll average now shows a 1.5% advantage for the Tories. It probably needs to invert (or almost) to produce a tie in the seat projection.

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