Monday, February 8, 2010

Nanos: Small Conservative Lead

Nanos Research has released its first poll of the year, and it shows a 1.7% Tory lead, which is consistent with the recent poll average. Where Nanos diverges from recent polls, however, is that it has the Greens much lower than other ones (5.6%), and the Liberals (33.9%) and Conservatives (35.6%) much higher. Moreover, in the key battleground of Ontario, the NDP posted a paltry 10.9% in this poll.

(Speaking of the NDP: I join the chorus of Canadians wishing Jack Layton all the best in his fight against cancer. I can't help but wonder, though, if this is going to throw off polls in the coming week...)

All this causes a redistribution of seats from the Bloc and the NDP to the Conservatives and the Liberals:

CON - 124
LIB - 104
BQ - 46
NDP - 34

This is tied for the lowest result for the Bloc since the creation of this website. The Bloc is not actually doing that poorly in recent polls - it's just that the Grits' rise is hurting them. Indeed, for the Liberals, this is tied for their highest projection since mid-August; for the NDP, this is tied for the lowest since late October, again on Liberal strength rather than their own weakness.

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