Thursday, January 28, 2010

Angus Reid: Tories Still Lead

Angus Reid has posted the results of a new poll, showing the Tories 4 points ahead of the Liberals. This was a strong poll for the NDP everywhere except on the Prairies, and indeed Angus pegs the Dippers at 19% nationally, a whopping 4.4% more than this week's EKOS. For the Grits, this was a somewhat weak poll, except in Québec, where they posted a respectable 28%. The Tories did OK, if you discount the dismal 11% in Québec: Angus still has them marginally ahead in Ontario. The 42% for the Bloc was a strong showing.

The aggregate projection is little changed, with the small parties gaining 1 seat each, and the big ones losing 1 each:

CON - 128
LIB - 94
BQ - 49
NDP - 37

Interesting note: the BQ and the NDP are exactly back to their 2008 seat count.

You might ask why the Conservative projection dropped even though this poll was relatively favourable to them. The answer is that the recent midpoint date of this poll (Jan. 25.5) caused a decrease in weight of polls from early January, which also had the Tories higher than recent surveys.

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