Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, March 31, 2011

Nanos: Tories' Lead Shrinks to 6.4, but Is Up in Ontario

Today's Nanos tracking poll has the Liberals up by 4% nationally. The Conservatives are also up, but by just 0.7%, so the gap has shrunk by 3.3%. Since the first tracking poll was conducted March 27-29, while this one covers March 28-30, it follows that the measured difference was about 10 points smaller on March 30 than March 27. Such a shift is not quite (but close to) statistically significant for a daily sample of 400.

Before the Grits get too excited nationally, however, they need to worry about Ontario, which is the only region where their support did not increase. Instead, the Tories are up by 4.5% there, implying a 13.5% increase from March 27 to 30. However, due to the limited regional sample size, that change is not statistically significant.

This poll is bad news for the NDP, which is down everywhere, while the Bloc is stable.

The new projection moved seats around for little net change:

CON - 156
LIB - 68
BQ - 52
NDP - 32

My weighted average for the Tory national lead is down slightly, to 13.2%.

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