Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, March 4, 2010

EKOS: Conservatives Lead by 3

This week's EKOS is out, and none of the regional numbers are out of line with recent averages of other polls, except perhaps the low NDP number in Alberta (5.2%, less than half the Greens' 13%), and the low Tory number in BC (28.5%, fractionally less than the Liberals' 28.7%).

As a result, very little movement in the aggregate projection:

CON - 133
LIB - 91
BQ - 48
NDP - 36

The poll average has the Tories with a 3.3-point national lead, excluding this week's Harris-Decima poll, for which no regional breakdown was released, and which showed a dead heat. The projection would probably be somewhat more favourable to the Liberals were I able to incorporate that poll.

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