Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Monday, March 29, 2010

Angus Reid: Tories Lead by 6

Angus Reid has released its most recent poll, and nationally, it mirrors the recent EKOS and Ipsos polls in terms of the Conservative-Liberal gap. The main ways in which this poll differs from others are that the Liberals have lost their lead in Atlantic Canada (beware the small sample though!), the Tories are strong in BC (40%, similar as in the Ipsos, but higher than all other March polls), and the NDP polled well across the country (except in the Prairies), scoring 20%.

The Liberal retreat continues in the seat projection (about 70% weight on 3 polls since mid-March, and 30% on 4 other March polls):

CON - 131
LIB - 87
BQ - 50
NDP - 40

The 40-seat mark sets a new high for the NDP since this website was created! Their national poll average is now near their 2008 election result, which enables them to keep all 37 of their seats even though the Liberals are up slightly (but 4 of those are very close). The NDP gets 3 extra seats out West from Conservatives weakness.

The polling average now has the Tories ahead by 4.8% on the Grits. This is mainly a reflection of Liberal weakness rather than Conservative strength: compared to March 2 when the gap was just over 3%, the CPC has gained no seats while the LPC has lost 6.

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