Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Monday, November 30, 2009

Léger Québec Poll

No big news (on the federal scene, at least) in terms of top-line numbers, but the Tories seem to have retaken the lead in Quebec City, where they were a few points behind the Bloc for several polls in a row. (And that's a long time, since Québec pollsters, the only ones that provide a breakdown for Quebec City, typically poll at most once a month.) Of course, that subsample is very small, but the 12-point lead suggests that the Conservatives now have a good chance of keeping all their Quebec City seats. This is not surprising, considering that they've been back up near their 2008 election levels for a while.

As a result, the Tories take a seat from the Bloc in the aggregate projection:

CON - 147
LIB - 72
BQ - 51
NDP - 38

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