Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Sunday, November 8, 2009

By-Elections Tomorrow

The projection model on this website is not designed to project by-elections, whose results are rather unpredictable due to low turnout and a paucity of polls just before election day, among other things. That said, the model is currently showing all 4 ridings as "holds" (counting the Conservatives winning Cumberland--Colchester--Musquodoboit Valley as a hold), though New Westminster--Coquitlam is close, so the Tories have a chance to take a seat from the NDP. Also, the departure of popular Bloc incumbent Paul Crête could allow the Tories to take Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup.

Given their current numbers, the Liberals are probably happy that they do not have any chance of winning any of the by-elections, so they don't have a way to underperform.

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