Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, December 10, 2009


The first national poll in two weeks is out, and it is... completely underwhelming. Basically, nothing changed. Due to the scarcity of polls lately, this one was weighed almost 50% in my projection. But despite half the inputs being new, the only change was in Newfoundland and Labrador, where the Grits lose a seat to the dippers. So the new totals are:

CON - 147
LIB - 71
BQ - 51
NDP - 39

This is a new low for the Liberals, and a new high for the NDP. This trend is unlikely to persist, however: the Liberals simply don't have much room left to slide, and the NDP is really milking out every possible seat in this projection, given that their national numbers are actually still below where they were in the 2008 election.

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