Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Friday, November 20, 2009

New Angus Reid Poll

Now that EKOS is bi-weekly, updates will come even less often... Here's the latest Angus, which shows the Grits at a disastrous 23% - down below Dion election levels, to Dion coalition levels...

Accordingly, in the aggregate projection, the Liberals lose 3 seats. Those losses come mainly in Québec, due to the Bloc's strong result in this poll. I'm guessing, though, that this Bloc resurgence is just statistical noise, but we'll have to wait and see.

CON - 146
LIB - 72
BQ - 52
NDP - 38

Bad news for the Liberals, who are down to their lowest projection (tied to October 29), and who are the only party projected to lose seats. Fortunately for them, all of the other parties' projected gains are tiny, and with the Holidays and the Olympics coming, the earliest an election campaign could get underway is probably in March 2010.

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