Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Super Thursday!

Angus-Reid also posted their most recent poll today, with results very similar to EKOS'. This poll is good news for the Liberals in Ontario, but not so good in BC. The national numbers (34-33 for Grits) are basically the same as in the EKOS poll, and my projection based on this poll alone also has the Tories winning by a very small number of seats. We are really in a dead heat!

Overall, it looks like if an election had occurred this past week, we would have basically had a rerun of the 2006 election outside Québec. In Québec though, the Liberals are a lot stronger, and the Conservatives are weaker, as is the Bloc.

Both polls from today suggest that the dominant opposition party in Manitoba/Saskatchewan has become the Liberals, by over 10%. The NDP beat the Grits by 7.6% in this region in the last election. This doesn't have big seat implications since the Tories are far ahead there, but it suggests that the Liberals are a true national party again.

My aggregate projection still shows the Conservatives ahead by 15 seats:
CON - 123
LIB - 108
BQ - 46
NDP - 31
That's because there are relatively few polls this summer (basically only EKOS and Angus), so I'm temporarily using more than one poll from each company. But if more data confirm today's polls, the numbers will keep moving in the Liberals' favor.

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