Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Monday, July 20, 2009

First Projection and the "Ontario Gap"

CON - 127
LIB - 101
BQ - 47
NDP - 33

This projection is based on Angus-Reid, EKOS and The Strategic Counsel polls conducted from early July to July 17. The provincial breakdown is available at the top of this page until the projection is updated.

These results are very similar to the ones from 2006, even though the Conservatives are leading by much less than 6%, which was their margin of victory. Why? The Conservative vote seems to have gotten quite a bit more efficient lately: Conservative support in Ontario, a province with a disproportionate share of swing seats, is up relative to the rest of Canada. In 2006, the Tories lost Ontario by 5% while winning the country by 6%, which means that Ontario was 11% less favorable to them than Canada as a whole - call this the "Ontario gap." Now, they're leading the national totals by about 2% and trailing in Ontario by about 2%, so the Ontario gap has shrunk to 4%.

In fact, it appears that while in 2006, a popular vote tie would have resulted in a Liberal win, right now, it would result in a Conservative win. However, because Ontarians seem to vacillate between Grits and Tories more than the rest of Canada, this situation could well change before or during the next campaign.

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