Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Nanos: Tie; New Léger

A new Nanos poll shows a national tie between the Tories and the Liberals. The Grits score a high 42% in Atlantic Canada and in Ontario, and are only 0.5% behind the Bloc in Québec. The Tories manage a respectable 39% in Ontario and 22% in Québec. The NDP have a nice 17.8% nationally, but weak Ontario (14.6%) and BC (23.1%) numbers are cause for concern (although it should be noted that the Ontario result is still up from the dismal 10.9% in the previous Nanos poll).

A Léger poll in Québec is consistent with recent results from other polls: Bloc up 12 on Liberals and 20 on Tories.

Including the Léger poll had no effect on the Québec projection, while including the Nanos poll nets 4 seats for the Liberals - 2 from the Bloc, and 2 from the NDP in Ontario.

CON - 132
LIB - 92
BQ - 49
NDP - 35

The Tory national weighted-average lead is just under 3%.

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