Saturday, March 20, 2010

Ipsos: Tories Lead by 6

Ipsos-Reid has released a new poll (hat tip to ThreeHundredEight.com) showing the Conservatives leading by 6 points. This is more than what other pollsters show, but less than the 8-point gap in last month's Ipsos poll, so the news isn't as good for the Tories as the headline suggests. In fact, the regional breakdown shows that Tory strength in this poll comes from Alberta and BC, two areas where they weren't projected to lose any seats narrowly. Their 20% in Québec is good news, but the dismal 21% in Atlantic Canada and the strong 29% for the NDP in MB/SK offset it.

The NDP also posted an excellent 32% in Atlantic Canada and 18% nationally, so this is a good poll for them. As for the Liberals, the gloomy headline figure reflects their weakness in the West; they actually got a nice 27% in Québec and maintain their lead in Ontario, so this poll is not bad news in terms of seats.

Indeed, the aggregate projection actually has the Tories losing a seat, while the Liberals and the NDP gain. The Bloc shows a rather large drop, but those seats are all marginal.

CON - 132
LIB - 93
BQ - 46
NDP - 37

The national Tory average lead did tick up to 3.4%.

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