Thursday, March 11, 2010

EKOS: Not Much Change

This week's EKOS poll is out, and there isn't much change in the national numbers. The following are highlights from the regional breakdown:

- Liberals score a respectable 27.4% in Québec, after several disappointing polls there. This stops their downward trend in that province - for now.

- The NDP get 17.9% in Ontario, a 3.6% gain, while the Liberals and Tories both lose some support. None of these changes are statistically significant, but they produce the only change in the seat projection: 2 go from the Liberals to the NDP. This swing wouldn't have occurred, however, without Angus Reid's poll from last week (accounting for 14% of my polling averages), which had the Liberals at a low 33% and the NDP at a very high 22% in Ontario.

- Tories now have a 15% lead over both the Grits and the NDP in BC. This is a drastic reversal from last week's EKOS, which showed a virtual 3-way tie. Note also that while the Harris-Decima poll from last week showed a virtual Con-Lib tie, this week's Harris-Decima poll has a 14-point Tory lead. Statistical coincidence, temporary Tory bump, or new trend in BC?

New aggregate projection:

CON - 132
LIB - 88
BQ - 51
NDP - 37

The Liberals are now about half way between their early December lows and their early February highs in terms of seats, even though their popular support gap with the Tories (3.4%) is much closer to the February levels than the December levels. The upshot is that if the numbers keep deteriorating for the Liberals, they'd lose seats at a slow rate, while if the numbers turn back up, they'd gain seats pretty quickly.

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