Monday, January 25, 2010

New Ipsos Poll

ThreeHundredEight.com has reported on a new Ipsos poll showing a 3-point Conservative lead nationally. Relative to other recent polls, this one was strong for the Liberals in Atlantic Canada and Québec, for the NDP in Saskitoba, and for the Tories in Alberta; Ontario and BC numbers are in line with previous polls.

The upshot is that the Liberals are once again up in the seat projection, though by less than in the 4 previous updates (+4, +5, +6, +5; this time +2):

CON - 127
LIB - 94
BQ - 51
NDP - 36

We are approaching the zone where the outcome of an election held today would be in doubt: with EKOS' Ontario numbers (Liberals leading by 4-7 points over Conservatives) and Ipsos' Québec numbers (Grits at 30%), an election would likely come down to a handful of ridings decided by margins of 3% or less. Of course, it's unlikely that actual public mood reflects the best poll for the Liberals in each region, but the fact is that a month ago, even cherry-picking polls like this would still have landed you in rock solid Conservative minority territory.

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