Thursday, January 21, 2010

EKOS: Liberals Crack 30

This week's EKOS poll reports a virtual tie between the Liberals and the Conservatives. It's the first time since early September that the Grits are above 30% in a non-Nanos poll. The Liberals now appear to be back in front in Atlantic Canada, and their strength in Ontario (where all polls since the New Year, except for Angus Reid, have them above 36%) is starting to hurt the NDP.

There was also a Léger poll published yesterday showing strong Bloc numbers in Québec (kudos to ThreeHundredEight.com).

The new projection, more than 99% based on polls since the New Year, is:

CON - 128
LIB - 92
BQ - 52
NDP - 36

Suddenly, we're closer to a Liberal minority than a Conservative majority, and LIB+NDP=CON!

It's interesting to note that this comes just as the Left in the U.S. has been slapped by usually friendly Massachusetts voters. We all remember that in Fall 2008, the reverse was true: the Liberals had a miserable election, while the Democrats trounced the Republicans. For all the strong economic and cultural ties between Canada and the U.S., it appears virtually impossible to look at public mood in one country, and say anything useful about it in the other.

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