Friday, January 8, 2010

EKOS Confirms Liberal Bounce

Our first update of 2010 shows the extension of the movement observed in the last one of 2009. The first poll of the year, an EKOS, has the Tories down at 33.1%, just 5.3 ahead of the Liberals, who aren’t doing that well either at 27.8% nationally. The NDP and the Bloc are pretty much par for the course, so the big winners of this poll are the Greens, at 13.4%. This contrasts sharply from the 4% reported in the Nanos December poll – a Copenhagen effect?

Despite an uninspiring national tally, the Liberals are probably actually very happy about this poll: they made significant gains in Ontario, where they are marginally ahead of the Tories (0.6 points, which is of course not at all statistically significant), and in Québec, where they stand to pick up some seats with 27.5%. These confirm the good Nanos results for the Grits in the two most important provinces. However, as we’ve seen in most polls since November, the Liberals are second in Atlantic Canada – but they’re probably not too concerned about that, since the Atlantic provinces have followed Ontario’s lead with a lag in the past couple of years. This poll is particularly weak for the Grits in the Prairies: bad for the national numbers, but insignificant seat-wise.

The Tories, however, should be worried: their lead in Ontario seems to have slipped away, and the 14.6% reading in Québec would imply huge losses. The latter, however, is unique to this latest poll, so it could just be an outlier. 34.2% in B.C. isn’t that great either.

For the NDP, this poll suggests continued strength in Atlantic Canada, a very strong result in Saskitoba (as Kady O’Malley would say), but some weakness in Ontario.

As a result, the aggregate projection shows another significant rise for the Grits. This time, the victims are the Tories:

CON – 140
LIB – 81
BQ – 48
NDP – 39


This is the worst projection for the Tories since late September, the worst for the Bloc since early October, and the best for the Grits since early October. The NDP is still doing well, but a few of those 39 seats, mainly in Ontario, have just gotten very vulnerable due to the Liberal rise.

Note: This post was written somewhere over the home state of Sarah Palin. I accessed the EKOS poll from Dulles Airport, and computed the seat projection somewhere over the Yukon. I am posting from Narita Airport, which is not even my final air destination today. Quite exciting for a relatively infrequent traveler and new blogger like me!

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