Monday, August 24, 2009

A Weird Ipsos Reid Poll

Ipsos Reid came out with a poll that places the Conservatives (39%) far ahead of the Liberals (28%). Yup, an 11% gap! And the results suggest that the Tories have a 12% lead in Ontario (43-31), a clear break with the past 11 polls that have the Grits ahead there...

Projecting based on this poll alone gives a slim Conservative majority, with the three other parties losing about 5 seats each. Normally, the Tories need a bit more for a majority, but the unusual Ontario result changes that.

Incorporating this data into the projection obviously nudges it towards the Conservatives and away from the Liberals:

CON - 127
LIB - 99
BQ - 47
NDP - 35

However, if more recent polls from other firms confirm that this Ipsos poll is a strong outlier, I will depreciate it more quickly than I usually do.

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