Monday, August 10, 2009

Nanos "Third Quarter" Poll

The first non-EKOS-or-Angus national vote intention poll in over a month just came out, from Nanos. The results (accessible here) show a 2.5% lead for the Liberals. Also, the NDP has a strong showing: 18.7%. Both these findings contrast with the EKOS poll's from last week, even though the two polls were done during roughly the same period (7/29-8/4 for EKOS, 7/30-8/2 for Nanos).

Regionally, as is customary with Nanos polls, the Grits are stronger than usual out West, especially in BC where they come out ahead of the Tories. However, this strength in Western Canada is mostly wasted on the Prairies and in the BC interior, so my model actually still spits out a small Tory minority based on this poll alone. Indeed, the 3.4% lead for the Liberals in Ontario is insufficient to put them ahead of the Tories, especially when the NDP is strong, as is the case in this poll.

My overall projection changed only slightly, with the Tories losing 2 seats out West, to the profit of the Grits and the NDP:

CON - 123
LIB - 107
BQ - 46
NDP - 32

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