Wednesday, August 19, 2009

EKOS: Small NDP Bounce

The weekly EKOS is out, and shows roughly the same results as last week, with the NDP up 0.8%, the Liberals down 0.8% and the Tories up 0.1%. The Conservatives lead overall by 2.6%, and the NDP polled a strong 17.3%.

The regional breakdown, however, is quite worrisome for the Grits. After several polls showing them ahead by 3-4% in Ontario, this one suggests that their lead is down to 0.9%. Now, given the smaller regional sample size, this could just be a statistical fluke, but given how consistent the Ontario numbers were since the start of August across all pollsters, it's a noticeable bump. If Ontario ends up anywhere close to being tied on election night, the Liberals can probably kiss their chance of forming government good-bye!

Now, the Tories didn't actually increase their support in Ontario: the Grits instead bled support to the NDP and the Greens. Moreover, the NDP has gone up for the 3rd week in a row in Québec, and is now back where they were last year - thus increasing Mulcair's chance of retaining his seat.

The only good news in this poll for the Liberals is in BC, where they lead the two other parties by about 5%. But at this point, I'd say that this is almost certainly statistical noise, though the Tory lead there does seem more and more fragile. And in any case, there are a dozen Alberta-like seats in BC that the Tories can't lose unless something totally freakish happens. That, combined with a few NDP strongholds, limits the Grits' potential for growth: even if they truly lead BC by 5%, they would probably still only get 10-12 seats. So Liberals shouldn't get too excited about this glimmer of light out West.

All this leaves the Grits down, and the Dippers up in my seat projection:

CON - 124
LIB - 103
BQ - 46
NDP - 35

If the top two numbers look familiar to you, it's because they're identical to the ones from the 2006 election. Looking at my projections over the past few weeks, the Tories are stuck around 125, the Libs bounce around 105, while the Bloc is flat at 46 and the NDP inched up from the low to the mid-30s. Will the fall bring us some significant movement?

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