Monday, August 24, 2009

Harris-Decima Poll Details

The regional breakdown, except for MB/SK/AB, can be found in this writeup. Update: The full results are now available. It turns out that Harris-Decima continued weekly polls all summer, but played coy with the results, perhaps because the national numbers were mostly flat.

The most eye-catching number here is the 24% for Greens in BC. However, even with 24% in a four-way race, the basic arithmetic swing model gives them no seats. Of course, if the Greens truly have that much support, Elizabeth May would probably win her riding; furthermore, the support is likely to be unequally distributed, which would net the Greens some seats in the Lower Mainland and on Vancouver Island. Now, they probably aren't anywhere near 24% in reality: their best poll all year in BC had them at 16.3%.

Of greater consequence seatwise, the Grits are 6 ahead of the Tories in Ontario, which must be reassuring after Ipsos had them 12 behind. Bad news also for the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada (23%), Québec (12%) and BC (28%), as well as for the Liberals in BC (20%, probably due to the Green surge). The NDP gets solid numbers in Atlantic Canada (32%) and BC (26%), but does poorly in Ontario (13%).

Based on this poll alone, I get a virtual seat tie between the Libs and Tories, with the Bloc and NDP close to their 2008 results. My new aggregate projection is:

CON - 125
LIB - 100
BQ - 47
NDP - 36

My inkling is that the Liberals are actually a bit higher, and the Tories a bit lower. But I'll wait for more confirmation that the Ipsos poll is indeed a fluke before more heavily discounting it.

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