Wednesday, August 26, 2009

New EKOS and CROP

First, the weekly EKOS has come out, and doesn't show much movement relatively to last week. The two changes are that the Tories are back ahead in BC (by 3.3%, which is still worryingly low for them), while the Grits opened up a big lead (17%) in Atlantic Canada, but both these are likely due to sampling noise. Nationally, the Conservatives lead by 1.7%, while there's an exact tie in Ontario.

Second, CROP has published a Québec provincial poll, putting the Bloc and Liberals tied at 30%, followed by the NDP at a surprisingly high 18%, and with the Tories 4th with 17%. Unfortunately for the NDP, their 18% seems hopelessly uniformly distributed, which means that even if this result is borne out on election night, they probably would still get very few seats in La Belle Province. More importantly, according to this poll, although the Tories have lost less ground than the Bloc provincewide, they are now significantly behind in the Québec City area (Bloc 33, Lib 24, Con 23), which they carried last time. A CROP poll in June also had the Conservatives trailing (33-22) in that region. This means that apart from the seats in Chaudière-Appalaches and Louis-Saint-Laurent (Josée Verner), every Tory seat in Québec is in jeopardy.

Including these two polls and further discounting the Ipsos poll (now that it's even more likely to be an outlier) yields this new projection:

CON - 121
LIB - 104
BQ - 47
NDP - 36

This projection includes (at a discount) Angus, Nanos and Strategic Counsel polls that are several weeks old. But just including the last two EKOS and the last Harris-Decima would yield very similar estimates, so I'm comfortable with these numbers.

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