Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Ipsos, Harris-Decima: Tories Lead by Double Digits

A couple of disastrous polls for the Liberals this week: Ipsos and Harris-Decima. Both have the Tories ahead in Atlantic Canada (interpret with caution due to small samples), and both have the Tories ahead by 9-10 points in Ontario, more than their margin in the 2008 election.

Adding these polls and a Léger provincial poll to the projection basis makes the Tory gain no fewer than 10 seats!

CON - 148
LIB - 75
BQ - 53
NDP - 32

The weighted average Tory national lead also jumps to 10.7%, just a whisker less than their margin of victory in 2008. Note that because Tory support has become more efficient, their projected seat count is actually higher than in 2008.

This is the best projection for the Tories since October 2009 and the worst for the Liberals since December 2009. In 2009, we learned that Canadians flock to the Tories when the Liberal leader threatens an election. Now, we learn that the same happens when the media believes an election is imminent...

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