Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Friday, February 11, 2011

EKOS: Tories Lead by 12.5

This week's EKOS is good news for the Tories and atrocious news for the Grits: the Conservatives lead by 11.2% in Ontario, and are almost 4% ahead of the Liberals in Québec. The results elsewhere are actually par for the course for the two main parties, though the NDP gets low numbers across the board.

Adding this poll to the mix does not change the seat projection by much:

CON - 138
LIB - 84
BQ - 53
NDP - 33

However, the average Tory national lead jumps to 8.9%. Note that taking this poll alone would put the Tories on the cusp of a majority.


Anonymous said...

That projection was done at the end of January..not with this poll....if you scroll down further on'll see this would give the Conservatives 151 seats. I thought anyway....

Anonymous said...

1 Poll Federal Seat Projection EKOS 09/02/11
Conservatives 151

Election Watcher said...

Umm, I don't know what you're getting at. This is my own projection, which uses a different methodology from Eric's at 308.

Also, I have chosen not to publish single poll projections. All seat counts you see on this blog are based on an average of recent polls unless otherwise stated.

Anonymous said...

Contrary to the first anon commenter, based on provincial breakdowns I always find your prediction numbers more realistic appearing than 308. His methodology seems too abstract, something he admits today in relation to variations in Alberta.

Looking forward to the next update based on the new poll!

Election Watcher said...

Thanks! And you were right to look forward to the latest update: it shows a huge move. Of course, depending on your viewpoint, this may or may not make you happy, but it sure is exciting from a political junkie viewpoint...