Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Angus Reid: Tories Lead by 11; EKOS: Tories Lead by 6.1 (Past Week), 1.5 (Prior Week)

Two polls in the past 24 hours: Angus Reid and EKOS. The big news: the Conservatives have built up a lead in Ontario, even while struggling in Atlantic Canada, Québec and BC. The Liberals only get good news in Atlantic Canada though - obviously Ontario is not going well for them, but the same also goes for BC, where the NDP is running strong at the expense of both the Tories and the Grits.

All this is a wash for the Conservatives in the seat projection, while the Liberals lose 3 seats, and the NDP gains 3:

CON - 135
LIB - 85
BQ - 52
NDP - 36

The average Tory national lead is slightly up, to 5.4%. Ignatieff has now lost almost all of the ground he had gained in the summer, and we are almost back to the situation in April/early May, when the seat numbers were flat for all parties for weeks. Are these numbers now the default?

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