The following poll has been added to the model:
Mainstreet's 9/30-10/2 national poll (national results only; current weight among national polls: 36%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.
Today's Mainstreet tracker shows the Tories increase their lead marginally, with the Bloc trending further up. Everything is coming up Milhouse for the Bloc today!
The projection is back to essentially a Liberal-Conservative tie.
Projection as of the latest national poll (midpoint: October 1)
LIB - 147.6 (33.2%)
CON - 146.2 (36.2%)
BQ - 21.0 (5.3%)
NDP - 19.6 (13.2%)
GRN - 2.6 (8.9%)