Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Friday, August 9, 2019

Projection Update: Innovative 7/26-31 (and other dates)

The following polls have been added to the model:
Innovative's 6/28-7/8 and 7/26-31 national polls, and 7/18-29 ON poll (current weights among national polls: -4% and 21%)
For a full list of included polls, see previous Projection posts.

Innovative's results tend to favour the Liberals, and that is indeed what we see in the online national polls (outside QC). The model does not adjust for pollster bias (because I'm lazy), but it's not a huge concern since the effect on the average is modest (and a couple of the other fairly recent polls are from pollsters with a Tory lean lately). However, in the ON poll conducted by phone, the result does not show a Liberal lean, so maybe Innovative's Liberal tilt is just for its online panel.

Seats projected ahead as of the latest national poll (midpoint: July 30.5)
LIB - 153 (33.5%)
CON - 148 (35.6%)
NDP - 19 (13.1%)
BQ - 12 (4.1%)
GRN - 5 (10.4%)
IND - 1 (Wilson-Raybould)

If you're new to my 2019 projections, view key interpretive information here.

As it turns out, the last projection (after the methodology modification) should have been 151-151-19-11-5-1, with the difference that after I got rid of some rounding, Ottawa Centre remained NDP. Relative to this baseline:
- Liberals retake one seat in PE from Tories: Charlottetown.
- Tories pick up one seat in QC from Liberals: Québec (but note: there's a cautious anti-Tory adjustment in Quebec City (and pro-Tory adjustment in QC outside Quebec City and Montréal), which would grow if more polls confirm that they are gaining less support there than elsewhere in QC).
- The Bloc picks up one seat in QC from Liberals: Laurier--Sainte-Marie (but note: I am waiting for a riding poll to potentially make a Steven Guilbeault adjustment in this riding).
- Liberals pick up one seat in ON from the NDP: Ottawa Centre.
- Liberals pick up one seat in ON from Tories: Cambridge.
- Liberals pick up one seat in AB from Tories: Calgary Skyview (but note: if the MP, who was expelled from the Liberal caucus, runs again, there will be an anti-Liberal adjustment; even if he doesn't, I'm skeptical of the Liberals' chances here).
- The NDP picks up one seat in BC from Tories: North Island--Powell River.

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