Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Sunday, August 4, 2019

Polling-Related Adjustments 2019, Round 1

Update Aug. 9: Beauce poll added (updated adjustments, including knock-on effects and minor corrections on Quebec regional adjustments, underlined; minor additional adjustments may be made as contemporaneous provincial numbers become available)

First, a quick word about my polling averages. In 2015, 0.6% of the national vote went to minor (below 5% of the riding vote) independent and "other" candidates. This year, I will assume the same. The People's Party is not treated as a regular party since there is no baseline for it. I will give it a basic vote share of 2.4%, to be adjusted from time to time on an ad hoc basis. In total, this leaves 97% of the vote to the major parties. This is reduced to 96.8% in ON (Jane Philpott), 96.6% in QC (Maxime Bernier adding to the PPC base), and 96.2% in BC (Jody Wilson-Raybould). I then adjust the raw polling averages from polls (weighting described here) proportionally so that the totals match these figures. A turnout adjustment is then applied - it will be described in a future post.

The rest of this post reviews polls of smaller areas than the six standard polling regions (BC, AB, SK/MB, ON, QC, Atlantic). Resulting adjustments to the model are indicated in bold. You can view the current non-poll-based adjustments to the model here.

I. Regional Polls (from Jan. 1, 2019)

Atlantic Canada
MQO Winter 2019 polls (1/16-28 NL1/21-27 PEI1/30-2/10 NS1/30-2/10 NB)
MQO Spring 2019 polls (4/11-16 PEI4/25-5/4 NL4/23-5/6 NB5/3-13 NS)
Narrative's 5/6-24 poll
These polls consistently suggest that the Conservatives are up more than expected in NL (the Harper effect going away?), and that the Greens are not catching on there. Adjustments:
NL: CON +9, NDP -2, LIB -1, GRN -6
NS: CON -3, NDP +3.5, LIB -1, GRN +0.5
NB: CON -2.5, NDP -2, LIB +2, GRN +2.5
PE: CON +1, LIB -3.5, GRN +2.5

Léger's 1/25-28 poll
Léger's 3/8-11 poll
Forum's 6/11-12 poll
Forum's 7/22-24 poll
All these polls suggest that, even though the Conservatives are gaining in Québec as a whole, they are gaining less (or not at all) in the Quebec City area. One explanation could be that the Quebec City area already moved to the Tories prior to the 2015 election. Instead, the Tories appear to be gaining a little more in rural/small-town Quebec, where the Liberals and NDP do a little worse than expected. Adjustments:
Quebec City CMA: CON -3, NDP +1.5, LIB +1.5
Montreal CMA: CON -1, LIB +1
Rest of Quebec North: CON +2, NDP -1 -0.5, LIB -1.5
Rest of Quebec South: CON +2.5, NDP -0.5, LIB -2
(Salaberry--Suroît is mostly outside of Montreal CMA but shares some characteristics with it. Since the Montreal CMA and Rest of QC S adjustments go in opposite directions, I have left this riding unadjusted.)
This are only partial adjustments, which will be increased in size if future polls point in the same direction. Even so, they are flipping many seats right now: Liberals get to keep Québec and Louis-Hébert, while Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot, Jonquière and Trois-Rivières go to the Tories instead of the Liberals.

Forum's 7/3-6 poll (Toronto only)
Corbett Communications' 7/9-10 poll
Both these polls suggest that the NDP is doing worse in Toronto - specifically in Old Toronto, if you believe the Forum poll - than uniform swing implies. For now, I'll be cautious and go with a relative small adjustment: NDP -5, CON +2, LIB +3 in the seven central ridings in Toronto. This flips three seats (Davenport, Parkdale--High Park and Toronto--Danforth) that the model would have had the NDP just barely taking back from the Liberals.

Probe's 3/12-24 poll (Manitoba only)
Probe's 6/4-17 poll (Manitoba only)
These polls have the Liberals down more in MB than national polls have them down in MB/SK, and have the Conservatives and NDP up in MB while they're flat or down in MB/SK in national polls. They also show the NDP up in Winnipeg (but down in the part of Winnipeg roughly corresponding to Elmwood--Transcona) and down in the rest of MB. However, these polls also asked about provincial politics, and there is an upcoming provincial election from MB. So I will be cautious for now and not adjust the model; if these patterns continue after the MB election in mid-September, I will revisit the issue.

British Columbia
Justason's 4/4-5 poll (City of Vancouver only)
This polls shows a huge drop off for the Liberals in the City of Vancouver, and a huge rise for "Other" (much more than Jody Wilson-Raybould can account for). Given the tiny sample size, I won't make any adjustment here yet.

II. Riding Polls (by Mainstreet unless otherwise noted)

Note: A riding poll will result in a model adjustment ONLY IF it shows a substantial deviation from regional swing and/or it is in a riding with unusual factors. Most riding polls will therefore be ignored: they generally did not help much in 2015.

Beauce, 11/10-11
Beauce, 8/5
CON -30 -25, LIB -5, PPC +30 (Maxime Bernier)
This is a two-way Conservative/People's Party race.

Oakville, 5/27
This poll has a different party ahead depending on whether party leader or actual candidate names are given (the Liberals did not nominate the most popular candidate). The projection has Oakville as a very tight race, and is not adjusted.

Vancouver Granville, Justason 4/4-5 and Mainstreet 5/29-30
CON -10, NDP -8, LIB -10, GRN -2, Wilson-Raybould +30 
It'll be interesting to see whether Wilson-Raybould successfully maintains her lead during the campaign: it's always a struggle for independents not to be squeezed out by party politics. This could turn out to be a three-way Wilson-Raybould/Liberal/Conservative race.

Markham--Stouffville, 5/29-30
LIB -5, NDP -2, CON -5, GRN -3, Philpott +15
This poll somewhat surprisingly suggests Philpott pulls more from the Conservatives than the Liberals. I am not prepared to make such an adjustment without corroborating evidence, as this riding is a very tight two-way race. So for now, the adjustment assumes that Philpott pulls equally from the two main parties, and the two-way race is unaffected.

Niagara Centre, 7/15-16
This poll is bad news for the NDP and good news for the Liberals. It departs significantly from model expectations. I will adjust the model about halfway toward the poll: CON +1, NDP -6, LIB +6, GRN -1. This shifts the projection from Tories to Liberals.

Whitby, 7/18-19
This poll is very close to the projection. No adjustment.

Québec, 7/23-24
This poll is close to the projection. The Liberal lead is a bit bigger than projected, but that's because I'm being cautious for now on the regional adjustment. No further adjustment at this point.

*Leaked internal polls will not be included in the projection. That said, you may be interested in these.

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