Thursday, April 29, 2010

One Week from UK Election

The third and last debate in the UK election campaign has now taken place. In the week before this debate, 11 firms have polled UK electors, with the following results (numbers from 9 firms with polls wholly after the 2nd debate in parentheses; the other 2 firms had a small fraction of their polling before the 2nd debate):

CON - 34.0% (34.2%)
LD - 28.6% (28.3%)
LAB - 26.4% (26.4%)

Comparing these results to the average of the corresponding polls from a week earlier gives:

CON: +1.9% (+2.2%)
LD: -1.8% (-2.2%)
LAB: -0.3% (unchanged)

So basically the Lib Dems lost 2 points to the Tories in the past week, while Labour kept its ground. It will be interesting to see whether Bigotgate and the third debate generate some movement. An instant poll suggest that the 3rd debate is likely to have little effect on voting intentions.

A uniform swing with the current numbers would give something like CON 270, LAB 255, LD 95. As I've cautioned before, this likely overestimates Labour's count and underestimates the other two parties'. FiveThirtyEight takes into account and projects something around CON 300, LAB 200, LD 120, which looks reasonable.

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