Saturday, April 24, 2010

Ipsos: Conservatives Lead by 6

A new Ipsos poll is out (via ThreeHundredEight.com), and shows a 6-point national lead for the Tories. This poll is actually a pretty good one for the Liberals: an improvement in every region from the last Ipsos poll two weeks ago (in which the Tory lead was 10%), a 4-point lead in Ontario, and a weaker Bloc in Québec. Not much else to note, except that the Conservatives' suspiciously good BC result and the Liberals' and NDP's suspiciously poor one from two weeks ago did not repeat themselves.

All this puts the Liberals closer to some seats in Québec and Ontario, but not enough to change the projection:

CON - 133
LIB - 83
BQ - 53
NDP - 39

Despite accounting for about 2/3 of my projection weight, this week's EKOS and Ipsos polls did not cause any change. Canadians might be too busy following the NHL playoffs to be updating their voting intention :-)

The average Tory national lead is down to 5.1% due to the much reduced weight given to the old Ipsos poll as a result of the new one.

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