Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Harris-Decima: NDP Surges, Tories Under 30

The newest Harris-Decima poll puts the Conservatives at a startlingly low 29%, just 2 ahead of the Liberals, and 9 ahead of the NDP. In this poll, the NDP lead the Tories 31-30 in BC, challenge them (31-39) in MB/SK, and score a respectable 19% in Ontario. Are some Canadians giving a second look to our own leftish third party, as the British are doing?

Meanwhile, in Québec, this poll has the Bloc at an adscam-like 45%, while the Tories would be essentially wiped off the map with their 10%.

This NDP surge gives them 2 extra seats at the expense of the Conservatives in the aggregate projection, while the Bloc consolidates its 53 projected seats:

CON - 131
LIB - 83
BQ - 53
NDP - 41

The Bloc and the NDP are at their highest levels since the creation of this blog, while the Tories see their average national lead over the Liberals shrink to 4.4%.

Since this Harris-Decima poll is a bit wacky, I decided to also make a projection based on this poll alone, just for fun. I get: CON 110, LIB 90, BQ 61, NDP 46, GRN 1. If the NDP goes up even more at the expense of the Tories, we could get all parties below 100 seats!

No comments: