Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Saturday, November 13, 2010

4 Polls: Tories Still Hold Edge

Sorry for the lack of posts these past few days: work got a little crazy. Since the last update on the Canadian scene, four polls have been released: Abacus, Ipsos, Nanos and EKOS. These polls have tended to be good for the NDP: it averaged around 18%, and has regained the ground lost in the early fall. The Liberals also got good numbers in BC, polling above 30% in both the Nanos and the EKOS surveys. Did Gordon Campbell resigning help Ignatieff? Three of the four polls had the Tories ahead by around 5% in Ontario, but the largest and most recent one, EKOS, has the Liberals on top by 2% there.

The overall effect of these polls on the aggregate projection is a loss of 5 seats for the Tories, mainly to the benefit of the NDP:

CON - 130
LIB - 86
BQ - 52
NDP - 40

The average Conservative national lead has not changed much, and sits at 5.8%.

No comments: