Latest national poll median date: October 20
Projections reflect recent polling graciously made publicly available by pollsters and media organizations. I am not a pollster, and derive no income from this blog.

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Harris-Decima: Tory Lead Stable at 3

The latest Harris-Decima poll has results very much in line with the recent poll average in every part of the country, except possibly in BC, where the Tories do well with 37% at the expense of the NDP at 20%. The NDP's weakness in Ontario is confirmed in this poll (14%), and that's the main cause of their low national support level (also 14%). Harris-Decima agrees with EKOS that the Liberals hold a tiny lead in Ontario; that's probably where we've been all along, and the four freak polls early in the month (3 with a large Liberal lead and 1 with an even larger Conservative lead) likely were a fluke.

Not much change in the projection: on the net, the NDP loses a seat to the Tories:

CON - 130
LIB - 94
BQ - 50
NDP - 34

The last time the NDP was this low was before the Olympics, and the last time it was lower was in October last year.

The Tory average national lead increases marginally to 3.2%.

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