Sunday, March 20, 2011

Nanos: Tories Lead by 11; Projection: Conservative MAJORITY

The latest Nanos poll suggests little movement. In Atlantic Canada, the only region where the Liberals vie for the lead, this survey sides with the Tories by a statistically insignificant 5%. In BC, unlike most other recent polls, this survey suggests that the NDP is competitive with the Conservatives (7.8% behind). In fact, this poll, as is often the case with Nanos surveys, is a strong one in general for the NDP: 19.9% nationally, and 23% in Ontario.

The number that shifted the projection slightly to the favour of the Tories is their 12.3% lead in Ontario - yes, that's bigger than their national lead. If the election plays out this way, the Tories would likely win over 60 Ontario seats. As a result, the aggregate projection now has the Conservatives in majority territory for the first time since the creation of this blog:

CON - 155
LIB - 71
BQ - 51
NDP - 31

The average national lead for the Tories is also 12.3%.

If a campaign indeed gets underway, it would be rather ironic: after repeatedly backing off from defeating the government due to weak polls, the Grits and Dippers would head into the election both in their weakest position in the past 20 months.

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