Monday, March 28, 2011

Abacus: Tories by 9; Harris-Decima: Tories by 14

Two new polls today, one from Abacus and one, with incomplete regional results, from Harris-Decima. Both these surveys were conducted partly before and partly after the official start of the campaign. The Abacus poll is somewhat encouraging for Ignatieff: a single-digit national gap, with a virtual tie in Ontario and a tie with the NDP for the lead in Atlantic Canada. However, the Harris-Decima poll is pretty bad for the Grits: the 14-point gap is more than twice that measured by the previous H-D poll, and the 14% in Québec is disastrous and suggests that CROP's 11% may not be an outlier after all. The silver lining is that H-D still puts the Tory lead in Ontario at a modest 6%.

The projection moved one Ontario seat from the Conservatives back to the Liberals:

CON - 154
LIB - 70
BQ - 52
NDP - 32

The average Conservative national lead has increased to 13.0%.

One note concerning methodology: I will gradually accelerate the depreciation of polls this week. Normally, polls up to 7 days old are given full weight, while those less than 27 days old are given some weight. I will transition to something like 3 and 13 for the campaign.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Given the frequency of polls now and the importance of momentum changes it's a good call you are making on changing the poll depreciation methodology.