Monday, March 28, 2011

Around the Web: Projections at the Start of the Campaign

I thought it might be useful to record projections from various websites reflecting the situation just before the writs were dropped. Links to all of these sites can be found on the left of this page.

Issued after the weekend polls came out:
155 C, 66 L, 52 B, 35 N (Too Close To Call)
152 C, 72 L, 51 B, 33 N (ThreeHundredEight.com)
157 C, 64 L, 53 B, 34 N (Riding By Riding)
156 C, 68 L, 51 B, 33 N (LISPOP)
155 C, 69 L, 52 B, 32 N (Canadian Election Watch)
155 C, 68 L, 52 B, 33 N (average)

Issued on March 25, prior to the weekend polls:
157 C, 69 L, 49 B, 33 N (democraticSPACE)
157 C, 68 L, 51 B, 32 N (LISPOP)
156 155 C, 68 L, 51 B, 33 N (average of 6 projections)

As you can see, all the projections are very consistent with each other. This is not surprising since they are all based on averages of recent polls.

A more dated projection also based on polling averages was posted by CalgaryGrit on March 18: 163 C, 66 L, 55 B, 24 N. (Actually, CalgaryGrit posted ranges, and I took the midpoint of each range.)

There are also projections based on individual polls. Election Almanac posts them on a regular basis. Also, on March 14 today, EKOS released an in-house projection based on their 2/24-3/8 3/17-24 poll: 140 139 C, 86 L, 52 53 B, 29 N, 1 IND. Of course, EKOS' polling data is less unfavourable to the Liberals than most other firms'.

Finally, BC Iconoclast has not issued a projection based on current polls, but instead put up a prediction of the results of the campaign on March 23: 150 C, 79 L, 49 B, 30 N.

No comments: