Thursday, August 19, 2010

EKOS: Tories by 4.6

The newest EKOS poll suggests that things may have stabilized, with very similar national numbers for both weeks for the Grits and the Tories (the NDP did improve quite a bit on the Prairies and in the Atlantic provinces). The most intriguing development in this poll is the 3.3% Liberal lead in Ontario during the second week, a change from a roughly 1% Conservative lead during the first week and in previous polls. Are the Grits finally getting traction in that crucial battleground?

Like in other recent polls, the Grits managed to score a respectable 25% in Québec, so their recovery from the spring doldrums there seems real. On the flip side, after several strong polls in MB/SK, the Grits fall back into the teens in this one, to the profit of the NDP. However, the Dippers did dismally in the other Prairie province, which (barely) moved my Alberta projection to a Tory sweep. In BC, this poll confirms the recently observed widening of the Conservative lead over the NDP; are British Columbians already calming down from their HST anger?

The Liberal seat count continues its summer gradual upward trend:

CON - 130
LIB - 90
BQ - 51
NDP - 37

The average Conservative national lead did grow slightly, however, to 4.7%, mostly on the much reduced weight of the 7/28-8/3 EKOS polling that had the Tories up by just 1.2%.

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