Thursday, August 5, 2010

EKOS: Tory Lead at 4.8 in Past Two Weeks, Just 1.2 in Most Recent Week

The most recent EKOS poll shows some movement toward the Liberals in the past week. Specifically, Liberal fortunes appear to have improved in Atlantic Canada and Québec in the most recent week. However, the Grits are still shown trailing the Tories by 1% in Ontario, which is a major impediment to substantial improvement in the projected seat count. Indeed, the Tories lose only one seat in the aggregate projection, although this did bring the Grits to their highest level in almost 4 months:

CON - 131
LIB - 84
BQ - 53
NDP - 40

The average Conservative national lead, however, dropped one full point to 5.1%.

Note: Once EKOS posts its own report on the poll, I may update the above figures: the CBC report only shows the number of decided voters, and not the total number of voters interviewed. I weigh polls based on the latter because many pollsters report only that. As a result, the current numbers currently slightly underweigh the most recent poll.

Update: Weights have been fixed, but that caused no change in the projection.

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